Oscar Predictions (Part Two)

In a previous posting, I made my predictions for the following Oscar categories:  Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress and Best Animated Feature.
 
Because I wrote so much, I decided to post what I had already written.  This posting will focus on the remaining categories for this year’s Academy Awards.  And without further ado, here they are:
 
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – TRAVELIN’ THRU (TRANSAMERICA)
 
There are only 3 nominees in this category this year which hasn’t happened since 1989.  The frontrunner has to be Dolly Parton who wrote and performed Travelin’ Thru for Transamerica.  In The Deep from Crash and It’s Hard Out Here For A Pimp from Hustle & Flow are unlikely to take the Oscar.  Parton’s famous theme song to 9 To 5 was nominated 25 years ago.  It was her only previous nomination.  Chances are, because she lost that time around, she’ll win it this year.  And since she’s the most famous nominee in the category, it’s a no-brainer.
 
BEST FILM EDITING – CRASH
 
Here’s something unusual.  Only 2 of the nominated films in this category are up for Best Picture.  Steven Spielberg’s controversial Munich and Paul Haggis’ directorial debut, Crash.  Rounding out the category are Ron Howard’s Cinderella Man (which was snubbed in most of the major categories except Best Supporting Actor), The Constant Gardener and Walk The Line.  Considering it has to juggle a lot of characters and subplots, I’m betting Crash takes this one.  Usually, the winner for Best Picture also wins this category.  But as I noted in my previous posting, Brokeback Mountain will be named Best Picture.
 
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE – MARCH OF THE PENGUINS
 
This has frequently been a controversial category.  Originally, there was a committee of volunteers who screened films and selected nominees.  After the Hoop Dreams debacle, that all changed.  As a result, more familiar titles are getting recognized and 3 such titles jump out at you from the short list this year.  Murderball was a popular doc at Sundance in 2005.  It’s about quadriplegics who play wheelchair rugby.  Then there’s Enron: The Smartest Guys In The Room.  It would be interesting if that one wins.  Highly acclaimed, it does have an outside shot.  But you have to give the edge to March Of The Penguins, a movie so popular it outgrossed some of the Best Picture nominees.  The smart money is on Penguins but it would be something if the Enron documentary pulled an upset.
 
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – CRASH
 
Paul Haggis was nominated last year for adapting two short stories from an anthology into Million Dollar Baby.  He lost to Charlie Kaufman who won for his annoying Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind script.  This year Haggis and his writing partner, Robert Moresco, are competing in the original screenplay category along with Woody Allen (Match Point), Stephen Gaghan (Syriana), Noah Baumbuch (The Squid And The Whale) and George Clooney & Grant Heslov (Good Night And Good Luck).  Woody Allen is frequently nominated for his scripts and he has already won for Annie Hall.  Stephen Gaghan won for Traffic.  Clooney will win Best Supporting Actor instead of this category.  And Noah Baumbuch will have to content himself with the nomination.  That paves the way for Haggis and Moresco to collect the trophy.
 
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
 
Another easy one to call.  Based on a famous short story, the adapted screenplay for Brokeback Mountain, without question, will beat out the scripts for Capote, The Constant Gardener, A History Of Violence and Munich.  I’ll be shocked if it doesn’t win here.
 
BEST FOREIGN FILM – SOPHIE SCHOLL: THE FINAL DAYS
 
Frequently a difficult category to predict, I’m going with this World War II drama about a resistance group called The White Rose who fight the Nazis with fliers of defiance in Munich, Germany 1943.  Another possible winner is Paradise Now, the Palestinian film about 2 life-long friends who become suicide bombers.  Joyeux Noel is a French war film set during the first World War. Tsotsi is about a week in the life of a violent South African gangbanger and Don’t Tell is about an Italian actress coming to grips with a painful childhood memory. 
 
This award could go to any of these films but Sophie Scholl: The Final Days is the only one that deals with Nazis and the Academy has been known to reward films that deal either with the Holocaust or resistance movements.  It’s not a lock but history tells me this German film will take it.    
 
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
 
3 first-time nominees compete with the legendary John Williams who snagged his 44th and 45th nominations this year scoring Munich and Memoirs Of A Geisha.  He’s up against Alberto Iglesias who worked on The Constant Gardener, Dario Marianelli who did Pride & Prejudice and Gustavo Santaolalla who composed the music for Brokeback Mountain.  Williams has already won 5 Oscars so this one’s up for grabs among the newbies.  I’m giving the edge to Santaolalla’s score for Brokeback Mountain.
 
 
Here are my predictions for the short categories:
 
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT – THE MUSHROOM CLUB
 
BEST ANIMATED SHORT – ONE MAN BAND
 
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT – CASHBACK
 
 
Here are my predictions for the remaining technical categories:
 
BEST ART DIRECTION – MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
 
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK
 
BEST COSTUME DESIGN – MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
 
BEST MAKEUP – THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA
 
BEST SOUND EDITING – KING KONG
 
BEST SOUND – KING KONG
 
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – KING KONG
 
 
The 78th Academy Awards take place Sunday night, March 5th at 8 p.m.
 
Dennis Earl
Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
Wednesday, February 22, 2006
1:03 a.m.
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Published in: on February 22, 2006 at 1:10 am  Leave a Comment  

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