BEST PICTURE – A STAR IS BORN
It’s not often that the race for Best Picture is too close to call, but here we are in that very situation this year. Because of the expansion of the category a decade ago, eight titles are competing for the top honour. (Up to ten can be nominated as long as they receive a certain percentage of support.)
Let’s immediately eliminate Bohemian Rhapsody as a possible winner. Despite being the most commercially successful biopic ever, it deeply divided critics. Plus, there’s the problem with its troubled director Bryan Singer. Long under scrutiny for sexual abuse of teenage boys and ultimately fired for disappearing from his set before the film was completed (resulting in another director coming in to replace him at the last minute), even though he isn’t one of the producers, surely all of this will hurt its chances.
Green Book is in the same boat. Despite very positive reviews, it’s become a cinematic hot potato for its disputed portrayal of the true story between a Black musician and his white limo driver. The surviving family of pianist Don Shirley publicly criticized the film’s fictionalization of his story. Viggo Mortensen got in trouble for using an epithet during a press conference promoting the film. Director/co-writer Peter Farrelly has a dumb habit of whipping his penis out in work situations. And on top of all this, isn’t this just Driving Miss Daisy in reverse?
The Favourite clearly isn’t the favourite. Costume period pieces are usually cat nip for the British-loving motion picture academy but not this time. And forget about Vice. Since the nominations were announced, it has never been considered a serious threat.
No, the winner will likely be found in the remaining half of the category. Black Panther is clearly the audience favourite having made more money than some of these films combined. Critics loved it, too. But the academy is still predominantly old and white, so it’ll be an uphill climb. The same goes for BlacKKKlansman, Spike Lee’s biggest film in years. I’m doubtful either title can pull the upset.
The smart money seems to be on Roma, Alfonso Cuaron’s foreign language epic that was made by Netflix and had the unique distinction of being available in the home and at the theatre in a limited release simultaneously. Nominated for 10 Oscars altogether, surely it will not go home empty-handed. But would the academy, ever conscious of declining theatrical attendance and the rise of cable Television, really want to reward a streaming service rather than a major studio? Wouldn’t this be an admission of defeat?
When he made his annual Oscar predictions for the Chicago Sun-Times, the late, great Roger Ebert offered one guiding principle: Academy members vote with their hearts when selecting Best Picture. When you think about it, arguably no film gutted audiences and critics more in 2018 than A Star Is Born.
Yes, this is the fifth version of the story that was first made with Judy Garland in the early 1930s and yes, this is basically a redo of the 1976 remake which featured Kris Kristofferson and Barbra Streisand. But since its premiere at the Venice Film Festival late last summer, it’s been talked about non-stop as possible Oscar bait. It’s made a movie star out of Lady Gaga. Bradley Cooper is now seen as more than just an actor. And the movie finally gave 74-year-old Sam Elliott his first ever nomination.
A sizeable audience hit (nearly half a billion in ticket sales worldwide) and the possessor of widespread critical acclaim (it has a 90% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes), it also has the advantage of not being potentially tainted by controversy. Hollywood loves to reward stories about the business and since La La Land lost out to Moonlight, this will be the make-good.
A Star Is Born for Best Picture.
BEST DIRECTOR – Alfonso Cuaron (ROMA)
Once again, I am reminded of another guiding principle by Ebert. The person who wins the Director’s Guild of America award more often than not goes on to win the Best Director Oscar. Even though he previously snatched the golden gong five years ago for helming Gravity, Alfonso Cuaron won this year’s DGA for the Netflix feature Roma. The only possible spoiler here would be Spike Lee who incredibly is competing in this category for the very first time.
But history is tough to overcome. The last time the DGA winner didn’t win the Best Director Oscar was in 2013. Ben Affleck won the former for Argo but wasn’t even nominated for the latter which went to Ang Lee for Life Of Pi, his second victory.
All of the other contenders are first-time nominees and don’t have a prayer. Barring a breakthrough for Lee, it’ll be Alfonso Cuaron for Best Director.
BEST ACTRESS – Glenn Close (THE WIFE)
An aspiring singer, a notorious royal, a literary fraud, a Mexican maid and a pissed off spouse comprise the race for Best Actress. A Star Is Born’s Lady Gaga will be rewarded for co-writing Shallow in the Best Original Song category so she’ll be passed over here. Olivia Colman, who plays Mary, Queen of Scots in The Favourite, is a serious long shot. She’ll have to settle for politely applauding the winner when her name isn’t called.
The well-liked Melissa McCarthy didn’t win seven years ago for her breakout performance in Bridesmaids and she won’t win for Can You Ever Forgive Me? either. And the debuting Yalitza Aparicio from Roma probably shouldn’t prepare a speech.
That leaves perennial nominee Glenn Close. According to Wikipedia, “she has more nominations without a win than any other living actor, and holds the record for being the actress with the most nominations without winning.” Even though many will argue she probably should’ve won for Fatal Attraction more than 30 years ago, here’s an opportunity for the academy to finally reward her for having such a long, well-respected career.
Glenn Close for Best Actress.
BEST ACTOR – Rami Malek (BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY)
It’s the veterans vs. the newbie in the race for Best Actor. It’s also reality vs. fiction as all but one of the nominated characters is based on a real person. Only Christian Bale is a previous winner, having won Best Supporting Actor for The Fighter eight years ago.
Passed over for Best Director, Bradley Cooper still managed to receive four three nominations for producing, co-writing the screenplay, co-composing Shallow, and starring in A Star Is Born. He has also been nominated for co-producing American Sniper and for acting in that film as well as appearing in Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle. For much of this decade, he’s been an Academy favourite. But it won’t pay off for him, at least not in this category. He’ll have to settle for sharing the Best Original Song trophy with Lady Gaga.
You can forget about four-time nominee Willem Dafoe who plays Vincent Van Gogh in At Eternity’s Gate and three-time nominee Viggo Mortensen who plays real-life limo driver Frank Vallelonga in the controversial Green Book. Both of their slumps will continue into the new decade.
That leaves Dick Cheney in Vice and Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. Bale, who plays the former, could pull off an upset but he already has a golden trinket and doesn’t need an additional push. The latter, Rami Malek, on the other hand, who won an Emmy playing a hacker on Mr. Robot, is a new star peaking at just the right time. Not everyone loves the Queen biopic but I haven’t heard anyone dismiss Malek’s performance of the group’s legendary frontman. Hollywood is always looking to make new stars to keep the business thriving. And with so much focus on improving diversity (Malek is Muslim), here’s an opportunity to tick off two key boxes.
Rami Malek for Best Actor.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Mahershala Ali (GREEN BOOK)
There is an enormous consensus surrounding Mahershala Ali. Once again, he finds himself the heavy favourite to take home the Best Supporting Actor dust collector. I didn’t realize this myself until I looked at the number of awards he’s already taken home for playing pianist Don Shirley. Go look it up on Wikipedia. It’s an extensive list.
Let’s be clear here. We don’t need to talk about Sam Rockwell. He won this category last year for playing a cop in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. He’s not gonna pull a Tom Hanks for playing W. Adam Driver is Kylo Ren. He doesn’t need a fucking Oscar.
Before I started investigating the conventional wisdom on this particular race, my initial reaction was that this was going to go to a first-time nominee, someone who’s already had a long career but has never been singled out by the academy before. Mr. Moustache Sam Elliott, the voice of a thousand truck ads, is 74. Longtime British character actor Richard E. Grant is 61. If there’s going to be a shocking upset, either of them snatching the golden eunuch would be it.
God knows this has happened before. Consider Eddie Murphy in 2007. He had been cleaning up on the awards circuit for his performance in Dreamgirls only to watch in horror as Alan Arkin snapped up the Oscar for Little Miss Sunshine. Granted, Arkin had a previous nomination in the 60s but still, a stunning upset. And what about Sylvester Stallone who was expected to win in this category a few years ago for playing Rocky Balboa as an old man in Creed? He didn’t get called to the stage. Bridge Of Spies’ Mark Rylance, a first-time nominee, was summoned instead.
Let’s not forget, Mahershala Ali won this award for Moonlight just two years ago. And controversy has dogged Green Book for months. But will any of this ultimately hurt him come Oscar night?
In a way, I feel like I’m going against my true instincts here. There is a big part of me that feels like either Elliott or Grant could swoop in and have their big moment on stage, shocking the entire world. But, on the other hand, Ali is so highly respected as an actor (he’s currently appearing in the critically lauded third season of True Detective) and his performance in Green Book so universally acclaimed, there’s the other, more sensible part of me that feels he’ll be having another good night.
In the end, I’m relenting and going with the crowd.
Mahershala Ali for Best Supporting Actor.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Regina King (IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK)
Two Oscar winners battle it out with two newbies and a frequent nominee in the race for Best Supporting Actress. The Favourite’s Emma Stone famously won Best Actress for La La Land two years ago. (Warren Beatty almost read her name a second time during the totally preventable Best Picture fiasco.) It seems highly unlikely she’ll win again this year. First-time nominee Marina de Tavira is in the same position as her Best Actress-nominated Roma co-star Yalitza Aparicio, so count her out, as well.
In 2007, Rachel Weisz won this category for her performance in The Constant Gardener. Also nominated was Amy Adams for Junebug which ended up being her breakout performance. Five nominations later, here she is again facing The Favourite’s Weisz in this same category for playing Vice’s Lynne Cheney. Her slump will continue. Weisz won’t be called to the stage, either.
That leaves Regina King. 34 years after starting her career as a teenager on 227, she’s had her share of cinematic highs (Boyz N The Hood, Higher Learning, Ray) and serious lows (Down To Earth, Daddy Day Care, Legally Blonde 2). But Sunday night will be the best night of her professional life when she gets called to the stage to accept her first Academy Award.
Regina King for Best Supporting Actress.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE – RBG
BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING – VICE
BEST FILM EDITING – BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT – MARGUERITE
BEST ANIMATED SHORT – ANIMAL BEHAVIOUR
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT – LIFEBOAT
BEST COSTUME DESIGN – BLACK PANTHER
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – BLACK PANTHER
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – ROMA
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – Shallow (A STAR IS BORN)
BEST SOUND MIXING – BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
BEST SOUND EDITING – A QUIET PLACE
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – ROMA
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – THE FAVOURITE
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – BLACKKKLANSMAN
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN – THE FAVOURITE
Dennis Earl
Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
Sunday, February 24, 2019
1:40 a.m.
CORRECTION: Bradley Cooper did not co-write Shallow, the Best Original Song nominee from A Star Is Born. Fuck you, Wikipedia, for making me think he had. As a result, he was nominated for three, not four, Oscars. I regret the errors. I’ve made one correction and have decided to just put lines through the original, erroneous text.
Dennis Earl
Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
Monday, February 25, 2019
12:09 a.m.
Two Stunning Upsets In Otherwise Dull Oscars
The academy must really hate Glenn Close. What else can explain the continuation of her ongoing slump at the Academy Awards which held its 91st annual ceremony on Sunday. In a moment that very few, if any, saw coming, it was Olivia Colman who was named Best Actress, not the seven-time nominee for The Wife. Turns out she wasn’t a long shot at all.
Ever gracious and seemingly shellshocked herself, the charming and funny star of The Favourite tried to make Close feel better by declaring her her idol and wishing she had won this award under different circumstances (yeah, right). “This is hilarious,” Colman declared at the start, while also noting how “stressful” it was to be on stage. Humourously scoffing at the “wrap it up” cue on the prompter, Colman appeared to vindicate the academy’s choice with her entertaining speech alone which, upon its conclusion, resulted in a standing ovation. It was the only award The Favourite managed to snag.
In the other shocker of the night, Green Book, not Roma or my prediction, A Star Is Born, was named Best Picture in spite of so much controversy, not least of which included the public complaints by the surviving family of Don Shirley who claimed the film took excessive liberties with his real-life story. As expected, Mahershala Ali, who played Shirley the pianist, won his second Best Supporting Actor gong, only two years after his first for Moonlight. Although I correctly picked him to win, my initial feeling that there would be an upset was clearly wrong. Turned out I was thinking of the wrong category. In another bit of a surprise, Green Book also won Best Original Screenplay, giving co-writer/director Peter Farrelly two gongs for the night.
Bohemian Rhapsody was the big winner overall with four Oscars. It swept the Sound categories and took home Best Film Editing. Rami Malek, who noted his Egyptian heritage, was named Best Actor for playing Queen frontman Freddie Mercury. He also acknowledged Mercury’s sexuality and how he lived his life “unapologetically.”
Black Panther snagged three golden gongs but all in technical categories. It won for its Costumes, its Production Design (in a bit of minor upset over The Favourite) and for its Original Score. Roma also won three. Alfonso Cuaron took to the stage every time to accept for Best Director, Best Cinematography and for Best Foreign Language Film.
The elegant Regina King thanked James Baldwin, her mom and God after accepting the award for Best Supporting Actress. It was the only Oscar for If Beale Street Could Talk which was based on Baldwin’s novel of the same name.
Lady Gaga, whose very name was inspired by Queen, didn’t go home empty-handed. Along with her three co-writers (which did not include Bradley Cooper as I erroneously noted in my predictions and have now corrected), she took to the stage to be handed the Best Original Song trinket for Shallow, which ended up being the only honour given to A Star Is Born.
The mercurial Spike Lee finally won a competitive Oscar for co-writing BlacKkKlansman. Having stolen an outfit from Prince’s closet, he was his usual outspoken self. Like Regina King, he thanked his grandmother but also acknowledged the two biggest historical American injustices: slavery and First Nations genocide.
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse was named Best Animated Feature and Free Solo, not RBG, took home Best Documentary Feature. Even Best Visual Effects was a bit of a surprise. First Man won over the third Avengers movie. The complete list of winners is at the bottom of this entry.
Beyond the awards themselves, the overall broadcast was far from thrilling. Yes, Trevor Noah did a killer Mel Gibson joke, Paul Rudd did a brilliant, self-deprecating zinger during his presentation for Visual Effects and notice how the camera showed that Best Picture envelope being handed to Julia Roberts as she walked on stage? That was funny. Suck it, Warren Beatty.
Other than that, the show was lame. Nothing says contemporary than a failed American Idol contestant butchering two classics from the 1970s featuring half of the original geezers who made them famous back when they could actually play. Melissa McCarthy’s stuffed animal costume was stupid. There was nothing funny about those three SNL alums pretending to be the hosts for five minutes. There’s a reason they weren’t hired for the actual job. Spike Lee cursed but that goddamned delay silenced it. And what was with that hideous set? It looked like a giant fucking ear.
Kevin Hart, you did the right thing backing out. At least the show was only three hours this year.
The complete list of winners:
BEST PICTURE – GREEN BOOK
BEST DIRECTOR – Alfonso Cuaron (ROMA)
BEST ACTOR – Rami Malek (BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY)
BEST ACTRESS – Olivia Colman (THE FAVOURITE)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Regina King (IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Mahershala Ali (GREEN BOOK)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – BLACKKKLANSMAN
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – GREEN BOOK
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE
BEST ANIMATED SHORT – BAO
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE – FREE SOLO
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT – PERIOD. END OF SENTENCE
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT – SKIN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN – BLACK PANTHER
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN – BLACK PANTHER
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – BLACK PANTHER
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – Shallow (A STAR IS BORN)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – FIRST MAN
BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIRSTYLING – VICE
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – ROMA
BEST SOUND EDITING – BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
BEST SOUND MIXING – BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – ROMA
Dennis Earl
Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
Monday, February 25, 2019
12:41 a.m.