2020 Oscar Predictions

BEST PICTURE – 1917

Thanks to the expanded nomination slots, a reinstated policy over the last decade, the most significant Oscar category has become the most eclectic.  Nine very different titles are competing for the top prize in what appears to be another open race with no definitive favourite.

There are films about real events and tragedies, some reimagined in fictional form.  There are films about broken people and severed relationships.  There’s a much debated origin story, a well regarded remake and the first Korean film ever to be nominated for Best Picture.

Speaking of Parasite, could it become the first foreign language winner in this category’s near centennial history?  Despite a lot of critical praise, the academy remains mostly made up of old white dudes.  It’s not going to win.

Neither is Ford V Ferrari, Joker, Jojo Rabbit or Marriage Story.  They’ll all have to be satisfied with simply making the short list.

Scorsese already won for producing The Departed, one of his best films, and considering the fact that The Irishman briefly played in theatres only to qualify for contention before becoming a Netflix exclusive, a victory is highly unlikely.  Just remember what happened to Roma (which is finally hitting DVD & Blu-ray later this month as part of The Criterion Collection).  Also, The Irishman is three and a half hours long.  How many academy members actually sat through the whole thing?

Only two films have a genuine shot at winning the ultimate dust collector.  I suspect many are picking Tarantino’s Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, but like Joker, this summer hit has a lot of detractors.  The business loves rewarding films about itself but they did pass over La La Land, lest we forget.

I’m reminded yet again of Roger Ebert’s assertion.  Academy members vote for Best Picture with their hearts.

Sam Mendes’ 1917, supposedly shot in a singular take, depicts a single event in the bloody First World War.  It was a big audience picture last month when it went into wider release and has received rave reviews.  Again, the academy is mostly comprised of elderly Caucasians.  Saving Private Ryan may have been passed over for Shakespeare In Love.  But Harvey Weinstein is a pariah now.  This time, the war movie will prevail.

BEST DIRECTOR – Sam Mendes (1917)

What’s the best way to predict who will secure the golden gong for Best Director?  Look at who the DGA selected.  The Director’s Guild Of America awarded its top prize to Sam Mendes for overseeing the epic 1917.  In 2000, he originally won the DGA for helming the excellent American Beauty.  Shortly thereafter, he went on to snag his first Oscar.  20 years later, he’ll be collecting his second.

BEST ACTRESS – Renee Zellweger (JUDY)

One of the major problems with the Academy Awards is its predictable acting winners.  Every once in a while, though, there’s a shocker.  Consider Olivia Colman’s stunning upset over perennial loser Glenn Close last year.

This year, however, all four acting categories appear to be already settled.  Let’s start with Best Actress.  We can immediately eliminate Charlize Theron.  She already won for playing a lesbian serial killer.  Frequent nominee Saoirse Ronan, she’s only 25 and is already on her fourth nomination, is still not being called up to the stage.  Neither is double nominee Scarlett Johansson.

I do wonder if Cynthia Erivo, the only Black nominee, could be a major spoiler here.  But she seems a real long shot.  That leaves Renee Zellweger.  More than 15 years ago, she won Best Supporting Actress for appearing in Cold Mountain.  She continued to star in a bunch of films up until the early 2010s when she suddenly disappeared for a while.  The academy loves a good comeback story and Zellweger’s turn as later-day Judy Garland during her last singing tour was certainly more appreciated than Judy the movie.

Having already made room on her shelf for a slew of prizes associated with the performance, she should set aside one more space for an Oscar.

BEST ACTOR – Joaquin Phoenix (JOKER)

Leo DiCaprio won this prize for The Revenant several years ago.  He’s not winning a second.

And you can forget about Adam Driver, Jonathan Pryce and Antonio Banderas.  They can watch the show from the comfort of their own living rooms.  No one is calling any of their names.

Hard to believe it’s been more than a decade since the academy awarded the Best Supporting Actor gong to the much missed Heath Ledger for his benchmark portrayal of the most memorable Batman villain in The Dark Knight.  And now, they’re about to do the same thing for Joaquin Phoenix this year in the lead category.  He’s come a long way from Spacecamp.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Laura Dern (MARRIAGE STORY)

The past and the future collide in the race for Best Supporting Actress.

Perennial nominee Kathy Bates, who earned a Best Actress gong for scaring the shit out of author James Caan in Misery nearly 30 years ago, is not going to add another dust collector to her trophy case.  Neither is recent two-time nominee Margot Robbie.  First timer Florence Pugh (wrestling fans will recognize her as Paige from Fighting With My Family) hopefully has a long career ahead of her beyond this latest Little Women update.

As for Scarlett Johansson, she’ll have the dubious distinction of being the only current nominee to be passed over in two acting categories.  At least she’ll be in good company.

Since the nominations were announced, Laura Dern has been deemed an untouchable favourite.  Already the recipient of many awards for her acclaimed performance in Marriage Story, including a recent SAG honour, what’s one more?  I will be genuinely shocked if her name is not in that envelope.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Brad Pitt (ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD)

Everybody in this category has won at least a single Oscar and not necessarily in this category.

Anthony Hopkins took what Brian Cox did in the wrongly overlooked Manhunter and added a lot more quiet intensity and depravity to his more iconic version of Hannibal Lecter in The Silence Of The Lambs which led to his sole Academy Award victory.  Al Pacino finally grabbed one after so many incredulous dismissals for his brilliant performance as a blind, crotchety, suicidal veteran in Scent Of A Woman, itself a poignant gem.  His Irishman co-star Robert De Niro won a supporting trophy for playing the young Vito Corleone in Godfather 2 and a lead trinket as Jake La Motta in Raging Bull.  And then there’s Tom Hanks, himself a two-time winner, first for playing an AIDS-afflicted lawyer fighting for dignity in Philadelphia and as the lovably oblivious Forrest Gump.  Remember, he won his Best Actor Oscars at two consecutive ceremonies.

Brad Pitt has one.  But curiously, not for being on screen.  He produced the Best Picture winner 12 Years A Slave.  That can mean only one thing.  He’s finally taking home a golden gong for acting.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – TOY STORY 4

BEST ORIGINAL SONG – (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again (ROCKETMAN)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – PARASITE

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – JOJO RABBIT

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – 1917

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – THE IRISHMAN

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN – ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD

BEST ANIMATED SHORT – HAIR LOVE

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT – NEFTA FOOTBALL CLUB

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT – LEARNING TO SKATE IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE – AMERICAN FACTORY

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM – PARASITE

BEST SOUND EDITING – FORD V FERRARI

BEST SOUND MIXING – FORD V FERRARI

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – 1917

BEST FILM EDITING – FORD V FERRARI

BEST MAKE-UP & HAIRSTYLING – BOMBSHELL

BEST COSTUME DESIGN – LITTLE WOMEN

Dennis Earl
Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
Saturday, February 8, 2020
3:48 a.m.